Fears and hopes for the 2020 Presidential Primary

Speaking as a Democrat, I am worried about the aftermath of the midterms and what my party will do for Americans when we hold power.

And I’m worried that the 2020 Democratic presidential primary will be a miserable circus.

In 2016, the Republicans served up sixteen flawed candidates. Most were unpopular, kept in the race by a few billionaire donors.

President Donald Trump turned that primary into a wrestling event, full of outrageous stunts, oversized personalities and mind-numbing press coverage.

Since becoming president, he’s done the same with everything he’s touched, making healthcare, hate crimes and hurricanes in Puerto Rico about himself and what we think of him. It’s all ego, no substance, no collective action. And our political process has been reshaped by it.

Now the Democrats may face a similar clash of personalities. There are over a dozen politicians from all different levels of government who could potentially run in 2020.

All of these people are capable and visible, and, with the backing of a few donors, could spend months as candidates for president.

In August, the Netroots Nation conference hosted several potential candidates, each one testing their progressive arguments, trying to outshine one another.

At major protests and on the floor of the Senate, senators like Sens. Cory Booker and Elizabeth Warren have  put in  visible and  transparent efforts to raise their profiles within the Democratic party.

Meanwhile, that same publicity-and-personality urge prompted Warren to release a DNA test, prompting mixed reactions and uncomfortable meditations about race.

Beyond being cringeworthy, these personality politics could be bad strategy. Hollow theatrics are Trump’s domain. No earnest Democrat is going to out-personality him. The road to  2020 could be long and painful.

For that reason, I want to find something to get excited about, for all Democrats to focus on. Specifically, the Democratic candidates are strengthening themselves where Trump is weakest: actual policy knowledge.

One underrated part of the run up to 2020 has been senators’ competition to come up with bolder and better progressive ideas. Almost every 2020 prospect has at least one.

In the past year, Sen. Kamala Harris introduced the LIFT Act, which aims to establish a basic income for Americans below a certain income level and Booker floated a plan for “baby bonds,” personal bank accounts that grow to $50,000 by a person’s 18th birthday, giving lower-income kids a chance at higher education, cars, or down payments on homes.

Warren has led the way, though, proposing one plan to stimulate affordable housing. And of course, everyone from Sen. Bernie Sanders down has a plan for health care.

This competition to come up with the boldest and newest ideas echoes what the political scientist Bruce Bueno De Mesquita said about democracy at its best, is “an arms race of good ideas.”

At first glance, this focus on policy issues sounds like suicide in a national election. If Trump reduced politics to a  pageant, won’t Democrats be naively taking the high road yet again?

I would say no, because the Trump era has seen intense popular interest in the the minutiae of policy issues when people realize they might be affected.

Think about the popular opposition to the GOP’s healthcare bill, or outrage over the “extra $1.35 a week” billionaire’s tax cut.

When Trump got elected, millions of Americans realized that, with the GOP controlling every branch of government, few institutions stood between their liberty and the whims of the Trump cult-controlled Republican Party.

So they dove head first into organizing, volunteering, and news consumption. They got fired up about minute policy fights, from taxes to gerrymandering.

Beyond this, Democrats have discovered an enormous advantage talking about certain policies.

Stacey Abrams’ campaign for Georgia governor centered  on a pledge to expand Medicaid and improve the  healthcare of poor families; it drove her campaign to compete in what’s supposed to be a deep red state because it made sense, especially to women of color who rarely felt recognized in politics.

The issues Democrats hit on again and again—education, income inequality, even Medicare—are popular with all Americans. Republicans can’t compete in this arena, so they transparently lie.

Missouri Senator-Elect Josh Hawley declared again and again that he supports protections for preexisting conditions, even as he leads a lawsuit to end those protections.

Democracy really is, at its best, an arms race of good ideas, so it is important to note that the Democrats do not have a monopoly on good ideas.

The GOP is full of thinkers with nuanced views on healthcare and welfare. But none of those people have as much power as their president or their congressional leaders.

The Republicans spent eight years saying they could govern for all  Americans better than Democrats, then they got power and gave us two years of unpopular tax cuts and limp excuses for inaction.

If Democrats hope to win in 2020, they will do it by competing to come up with the best ideas, by minimizing personality-based insanity, and, above all else, by making public discourse offer real answers to real issues.