Straight out of left field | Future HOF classes may be a tad thin

This past week, one of my favorite players of the late 1990s/ early 2000s retired: Nomar Garciaparra. While I was quite sad to see him ride off into the sunset to watch World Cup matches this summer with his lovely wife, Mia Hamm, I do want to thank Nomar for inspiring my column this week.

Every time a player retires in a sport, I immediately ask the question: “Do you think he’s worthy of the Hall of Fame?” In Nomar’s case, I’m not sure. He put up pretty good numbers, but missed out on the Red Sox’s World Series runs, never capturing the title that would have helped his chances.

After this I began to think. “Who is coming up on the Hall of Fame ballot that might make it?”

The first active player that I thought of was Chipper Jones. While he only captured one World Series title, Jones was the anchor of a Braves team that made the monstrous streak of 14 divisional titles from 1991 to 2005. Aside from his injury-plagued 2009, Jones has constantly put up quality numbers that, up until recently, kept his team in playoff contention. He is the only player out of all the people at the end of their careers who I think will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer (mind you, this is coming from a Phillies fan).

From Jones I then, of course, thought of the partially retired pitching trio of Maddux, Glavine, and Smoltz, who helped the Braves, Cubs, Mets, Red Sox (for a small time) and Cardinals all make playoff pushes at various points in their collective careers.

Finally, I moved onto the power hitters: Jim Thome, Ken Griffey, Jr., and Frank Thomas. Thomas retired this past offseason, calling it quits after proving the truth of his nickname, “The Big Hurt,” to many opposing pitchers. As of now, Thome is in spring training with the Minnesota Twins, providing them with power off the bench along with a valuable DH on the season. Meanwhile, Griffey is back in Seattle for one more season, trying to help the Mariners become as strong as they were when he first played side-by-side with his dad in the early ’90s.

It was at that point that I thought, “Man, steroids have really messed up what could have been some of the best classes in the Hall of Fame, ever.” Think of, if you will, all the players who would have had a legitimate case for the Hall of Fame had it not been for allegations or confirmations of steroids: Mark McGwire, Sammy Sosa, Rafael Palmeiro, Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens, Andy Petite, Miguel Tejada, Jason Giambi, Gary Sheffield, and Ivan Rodriguez.

Now following the current trend of Hall of Fame voting in regards to steroids users, these players have little chance of getting in. All this means that over the next five to 10 years, you won’t be seeing too many people elected into the Hall of Fame.

Of the current players on the ballot, three of them have a pretty good chance of making the grade: Bert Blyleven, Barry Larkin, and Roberto Alomar. I think it’s pretty safe to say all three of these players will make the Hall in the next 10 years.

Aside from that, however, nothing is certain. Sure I have pointed out eight possible candidates, but there is no guarantee that these players will get the 75 percent of voting needed to get into the Hall. With that in mind, it looks as though the Hall of Fame will have some pretty thin classes over the next few years.

In about 10 to 15 years, however, things should pick up. Here are just a few people who would have a good chance of getting in, if their current statistical trends were to continue: Albert Pujols, Chase Utley, Dustin Pedroia, Hanley Ramirez, Russell Martin, Torii Hunter, David Wright, and Joe Mauer.

Until these players begin to retire—which will be a sad day for baseball—fans could be in for a real rut in Hall of Fame voting.

Now, I’m not advocating the admittance of steroids users into the hall of fame (I’m a little uneasy about the idea myself), but unless the baseball writers make some type of change, there won’t be too much celebration up in Cooperstown in the years to come.

Here’s an interesting hypothesis to consider, courtesy of my dad, Bill Hagan. As the years pass and the steroids buzz eventually dies down, the baseball writers may begin to vote for some of the steroids users who admitted to it, said they were sorry, and moved on. This could mean that people such as Mark McGwire and maybe even Alex Rodriguez could make it since they came clean. What this means for people like Roger Clemens and Rafael Palmeiro, however, is that their chances of getting a plaque next to Babe Ruth is slim to none.

I think I have to agree with my dad on this one. If there comes a point where no one is elected into the Hall of Fame for consecutive years (excluding the veteran’s committee or broadcasting awards, of course), then the MLB may have its hand forced into allowing certain people into its hallowed halls.

Hey, worse comes to worse, I hear Pete Rose isn’t up to much these days.