Straight out of left field | Don’t count championships before they’re clinched

Well, Philadelphia fans, it's finally here: Phillies' Spring Training. After a disappointing end to the Eagles season, a 76ers season with no success, and a so-so Flyers season paused due to the Winter Olympics, this is just what every fan in the 215 and 610 area codes needed: the hope that one team will end up being successful.

Yes, that's right, Philadelphia fans hope—no wait, they know that the Phillies will be good this year. Remember three years ago when the Phillies traveled to Florida and all they got was two minutes on the six o'clock news? Neither does the rest of Philadelphia.

Remember when Charlie Manuel was just some bumbling idiot who could never replace Larry Bowa? Well, neither does Philadelphia. Now every pitch that Roy Halladay throws and every ball that Ryan Howard knocks out of the ballpark are played over and over, not just on "Action News," but on ESPN as well. Charlie Manuel has gone from slowpoke to sage in two years time, earning the adoration of Phillies' nation with every little warped saying he can think of.

Unlike the days of Larry Bowa and Ed Wade, Phillies fans know that their team will be good, and will be that way for years to come.

Hold on a second, did I just hear optimism from a Philadelphia viewpoint?

While I hate to break it to everyone, this probably won't be the case. Yes, the Phillies have one of the most solid lineups in recent history and a rotation to make even the 1980 Phillies look like a AAA team, but every piece of armor has a weak spot.    

Injuries can do a lot to a team. Just look at the 2009 Mets: half of their starters went down by the All-Star Break and they fell faster than Galileo's cannon ball off the leaning tower of Pisa. I'm not saying that Ryan Howard and Jimmy Rollins are as fragile as Carlos Delgado and Jose Reyes were last year, but the Phillies have suffered through stretches without Jimmy Rollins (2008) and Raul Ibanez (2009) where the offense went silent and their record showed it. If something serious were to happen to Jayson Werth, Roy Halladay, or Chase Utley for a long stretch of time, then things might take a turn for the worse for the Phils.

While injuries are typically freak occurrences, a strengthening division is not. Looking at the four other members of the NL East, every team has made some improvements in the off-season: the Braves have added Melky Cabrera, the Marlins kept Josh Johnson and Dan Uggla, the Nationals picked up Jason Marquis and Chien Ming Wang, and the Mets picked up Jason Bay Rod Barajas, who along with Cabrera has been a constant thorn in the Phillies' side, always picking up the game winning or go ahead hits in ballgames. I'm just glad the Braves didn't end up with Johnny Damon or else the Phillies would be in serious trouble. What this means for the Phillies is that there is more competition within the division this year, making it even tougher to take the NL East crown for a third straight time. 

In the late 1700s, there was a man named Edmund Burke who, when commenting on the French Revolution and the changing of government stated that people need to know their circumstances; that is, people need to remember the past, present, and future when thinking about changes today. While I doubt he would ever imagine that his edifice would be applied to baseball, especially since the game hadn't been created yet, I think it's something to keep in mind when looking ahead to the 2010 season: remember your surroundings, know the people around you (the divisional opponents) and their motives (to take the division), and never under any circumstance believe you can just take power from others without first considering what other people are capable of.

Now, I'm a Phillies fan through and through. Like every fan in this town, I hope that Phillies win the World Series the next four years in a row and become a powerful dynasty. At the same time, however, something in my heart tells me that it won't happen just because the fan base thinks it will. Like ESPN's Scott Van Pelt once said, "You can say I'm the most beautiful man in the world, but that doesn't make it true."

I've been through years of disappointment with the Phillies, and I know that what they have right now is lightning in a bottle. I also know that anything can happen during the season and that every team in not only the NL East but the rest of the league as well will be gunning to dethrone the Phillies this year. A repeat is tough, but a three-peat is even tougher.  While I love my Phillies, I also have to keep Mr. Burke in mind: remember your circumstances.