Don’t pencil in Palin for Republican nominee just yet

Mitt Romney, the former governor of Massachusetts, was considered a front-runner for the 2008 Republican presidential nomination, raising prodigious amounts of funds and shelling out millions from his own wallet to fund a run for the White House.

His path was quite different than that of Mike Huckabee, the unassuming and polite former governor of Arkansas who emerged as the darling of the primaries following his stunning win in the Iowa caucuses.

Sarah Palin is the most divisive person in politics not named Barack Obama. She remains a dynamic campaigner, drawing enormous crowds at every appearance, and recently penned a New York Times bestseller. Her resignation as governor of Alaska seemed to be a strong indication that she was plotting a 2012 run.

However, none of these three household names are going to be occupying the top of the Republican ticket when 2012 rolls around. Instead, look for the name John Thune.

Few people outside of South Dakota and the Beltway are familiar with John Thune, and for good reason. He was elected to the U.S. Senate in 2004 from the state of South Dakota, hardly a major player in national affairs. However, his victory raised eyebrows in political circles throughout the country, and sent shockwaves through the highest ranks of the Democratic Party.

The man Thune unseated was Tom Daschle, the Senate Minority Leader and one of the most important and well-connected people in all of Washington D.C. Since the victory, Thune has continued his upward trajectory, assuming a number of important positions and chairmanships.

The most important question that must be raised is what makes John Thune a viable contender for the Republican nomination and a credible threat to Barack Obama. He is a down-the-line conservative who supports low taxes on small businesses and families, strong national defense, privately-funded healthcare, and a reduction in frivolous government spending.

His views are in line with a plurality of the American people, as seen by a recent Gallup Poll that found 40 percent of Americans identify themselves as conservatives, compared with 35 percent who consider themselves moderates and just 21 percent who call themselves liberal. Few Republican and Independent voters will question Senator Thune's conservative bona fides, which will serve him well in the 2012 Republican primary as other candidates struggle to appeal to the party base. His demeanor and personality plays well on television, as do his movie-star looks. One pundit recently described Thune as being "utterly handsome, but not in a patrician, Romney-esque way," while another said he "looks like someone straight out of Central Casting."

Thune has seen increased airtime in the past several months, frequently appearing on various political news shows to voice his opinion on healthcare, cap-and-trade, and other noteworthy issues, slowly but surely exposing voters to his impeccably calm demeanor and speaking ability. He reminds many in political circles of Bob McDonnell, who captured the Virginia governorship a few months ago. McDonnell routed the Democratic nominee, Creigh Deeds, by projecting a cool and polished image and focusing on kitchen-table issues in a state that had been trending Democratic in the last few election cycles.

In all of this Thune talk, it is easy to forget his presumptive opponent in the 2012 election, our beloved celebrity-in-chief, Barack Obama. No one knows more about rising from the ranks of the unknown better than President Obama, who catapulted onto the national scene with a stirring and memorable speech at the 2004 Democratic National Convention. He knocked off Hillary Clinton in a major upset to win the 2008 nomination, and rode a cult of personality straight into the Oval Office. However, as we fast-forward to 2012, the rhetoric and utopian idealism so beautifully delivered by the campaigner in Obama has given way to the harsh realities of governing. He will have to defend a four-year record, and this time, he won't be able to vote "present" on controversial issues.

In terms of demographics, the landscape is going to look very different from the one we saw in 2008. Political scientists predict much lower levels of turnout among young people and African-Americans, two groups whose unprecedented enthusiasm powered the Obama machine to victory.

President Obama's approval rating has dipped below 50 percent in most national polls. It was just several months ago that his ratings hovered around 65-70 percent, yet as the 2010 mid-term elections approach, the "pragmatist" who promised to shun party politics and usher in a new era of compromise and progress has been defined as nothing more than a tax-and-spend liberal. And in America, a center-right nation that sees Europe as a cesspool of nanny-state welfare systems, that designation has proven to be a costly one (see Carter, Jimmy).

So don't laugh. Remember the winter of 2005? Those "in the know" told us that 2008 would be "Clinton vs. Guliani." Remind me how that one turned out. You heard it here first. November 6, 2012: John Thune vs. Barack Obama.