Nine simple rules for winning your tournament pool

Need help fitting in during March Madness? Have no idea how to go about filling out a bracket but don't want to admit it? Do you pick teams based on mascots or colors? Have no fear; "The Hawk" is here to help. Everyone has a fighting chance when it comes to March Madness, whether you're a Cinderella team in the NCAA Tournament or a casual fan watching it. Here's a list of simple rules to keep in mind while filling out your brackets this week (Kelvin Sampson's unused copy of the NCAA Rulebook sold separately).

Don't ride the No. 1s too long.

The four number one teams always look enticing. And why not? They are the four best teams, right? Don't count on it. Never in the history of the Tournament has the Final Four consisted of four number one seeds. Three top teams have made it only twice, in 1997 and 1999, but there have been just as many years with no number one seeds in the Final Four (1980 and 2006). With the parity and upsets in college basketball today, it may not be the best idea to bet on all four number ones squaring off in San Antonio.

Starting out by riding the number ones is in your best interest, however. No number one seed has ever lost in the first round. Of the 92 times a one and 16 have squared off since 1985, only five times has the margin of victory been single-digits. One seeds have also had great success in the second and third rounds but past that point, anything can happen.

The overall number one seed has won the National Title only eight times since the seeding process took effect. Not great odds. This year's number one North Carolina has the talent to win it all, but don't count on the overall number one winning two years in a row following Florida's performance last year.

Upsets happen, know which ones to pick.

Upsets are what make March Madness so fun. At any point, a small-conference, little-known team can contend with very successful programs. But, when picking your upsets, you need a little bit of background knowledge. Again, don't pick a 16 seed in the first round, or a 15 seed for that matter. Only four times since 1985 has a two seed lost their opener, and it has not happened since Hampton shocked Iowa State in 2001 by one point. Three and four seeds are typically a safe first round pick as well, but, the fun begins at the five seed.

Every year, there is at least one upset in a five vs. 12 game (except for last year). Two years ago, two of the four 12 seeds advanced one round, as Texas A&M defeated Syracuse and Montana upset Nevada. But, only one 12 seed, Missouri in 2002, ever did much after the first-round upset, making the Elite Eight.

Surprisingly, since 1985, the same number of 11 seeds have upset their six seeds as 12 seeds over fives. The most notable is George Mason in 2006, whose first-round upset was their first step in their magical run to the Final Four.

For the 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 games, flip a coin.

These games are a crapshoot and there is no way to consistently pick them. The nine seed has beaten the eight seed over half the time, but not by much. Don't worry about picking these games incorrectly, however, as most of the time these teams become fodder for the one and two seeds coming out of their virtual bye rounds.

There is always a Cinderella (or two).

Cinderella teams are what make this tournament unlike any other sporting event. Almost every year it seems an unlikely team makes a deep run. The Gonzaga teams of the late 1990s, the two year run by Kent State behind Trevor Huffman, Tennessee-Chattanooga's Sweet Sixteen run in 1997, Xavier's 2004 run to the Elite Eight as a 10 seed, and George Mason's trip to the Final Four in 2006 are all examples of Cinderella teams who did as much as they could before the clock struck midnight.

It's never an easy task to predict what team will make a run each year (I imagine only a few diehard fans and alumni had George Mason in the Sweet Sixteen, let alone the Final Four). As a rule of thumb, try to pick one or two double-digit seed teams to go to the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight (in many pools, you may be rewarded for picking upsets like these).

Don't listen to the "experts."

Their brackets are probably just as messed up as anyone's. Analysts have a pick for the title and will argue it to death, convinced they are right. The ever-charismatic Dick Vitale of ESPN, for example, will pick Duke as his title team every year come hell or high water. Consider this a warning to stay away from Duke as your title team, no matter how many times "Dukie" Vitale says, "They're awesome, baby!"

Location matters.

High seeds will almost always be rewarded with venues close to home for the first two weekends of games. North Carolina will receive a de facto home-court advantage, playing their first weekend in Raleigh and second round in Charlotte, allowing them to sleep in their own beds and travel by bus to the first four rounds. Never overlook the power of the home crowd. Syracuse used great location to get them to the Final Four in 2003, playing the first weekend in Boston and the second weekend in Albany. Look for other teams playing close to home and give the home crowd consideration when choosing your games.

Don't bank on Memphis (or any other perennial underachievers).

Memphis enters the Tournament with only one loss, a thriller against Tennessee in which they came up four points short. With wins against Gonzaga, Georgetown, Connecticut, Arizona, and Oklahoma, the Tigers had the strongest regular season showing despite their weak conference.

But, beware of the Tigers. Memphis is the epitome of the perennial underachieving tournament team. Part of it may be due to their weak conference schedule. By the time they open play in the Tournament, it will be nearly two months since Memphis has won against a quality opponent (no offense to Houston and UAB).