Nine simple rules for winning your tournament pool

Need help fitting in during March Madness? Have no idea how to go about filling out a bracket but don't want to admit it? Do you pick teams based on mascots or colors? Have no fear; "The Hawk" is here to help. Everyone has a fighting chance when it comes to March Madness, whether you're a Cinderella team in the NCAA Tournament or a casual fan watching it. Here's a list of simple rules to keep in mind while filling out your brackets this week (Kelvin Sampson's unused copy of the NCAA Rulebook sold separately).

Don't ride the No. 1s too long.

The four number one teams always look enticing. And why not? They are the four best teams, right? Don't count on it. Never in the history of the Tournament has the Final Four consisted of four number one seeds. Three top teams have made it only twice, in 1997 and 1999, but there have been just as many years with no number one seeds in the Final Four (1980 and 2006). With the parity and upsets in college basketball today, it may not be the best idea to bet on all four number ones squaring off in San Antonio.

Starting out by riding the number ones is in your best interest, however. No number one seed has ever lost in the first round. Of the 92 times a one and 16 have squared off since 1985, only five times has the margin of victory been single-digits. One seeds have also had great success in the second and third rounds but past that point, anything can happen.

The overall number one seed has won the National Title only eight times since the seeding process took effect. Not great odds. This year's number one North Carolina has the talent to win it all, but don't count on the overall number one winning two years in a row following Florida's performance last year.

Upsets happen, know which ones to pick.

Upsets are what make March Madness so fun. At any point, a small-conference, little-known team can contend with very successful programs. But, when picking your upsets, you need a little bit of background knowledge. Again, don't pick a 16 seed in the first round, or a 15 seed for that matter. Only four times since 1985 has a two seed lost their opener, and it has not happened since Hampton shocked Iowa State in 2001 by one point. Three and four seeds are typically a safe first round pick as well, but, the fun begins at the five seed.

Every year, there is at least one upset in a five vs. 12 game (except for last year). Two years ago, two of the four 12 seeds advanced one round, as Texas A&M defeated Syracuse and Montana upset Nevada. But, only one 12 seed, Missouri in 2002, ever did much after the first-round upset, making the Elite Eight.

Surprisingly, since 1985, the same number of 11 seeds have upset their six seeds as 12 seeds over fives. The most notable is George Mason in 2006, whose first-round upset was their first step in their magical run to the Final Four.

For the 7 vs. 10 and 8 vs. 9 games, flip a coin.

These games are a crapshoot and there is no way to consistently pick them. The nine seed has beaten the eight seed over half the time, but not by much. Don't worry about picking these games incorrectly, however, as most of the time these teams become fodder for the one and two seeds coming out of their virtual bye rounds.

There is always a Cinderella (or two).

Cinderella teams are what make this tournament unlike any other sporting event. Almost every year it seems an unlikely team makes a deep run. The Gonzaga teams of the late 1990s, the two year run by Kent State behind Trevor Huffman, Tennessee-Chattanooga's Sweet Sixteen run in 1997, Xavier's 2004 run to the Elite Eight as a 10 seed, and George Mason's trip to the Final Four in 2006 are all examples of Cinderella teams who did as much as they could before the clock struck midnight.

It's never an easy task to predict what team will make a run each year (I imagine only a few diehard fans and alumni had George Mason in the Sweet Sixteen, let alone the Final Four). As a rule of thumb, try to pick one or two double-digit seed teams to go to the Sweet Sixteen or Elite Eight (in many pools, you may be rewarded for picking upsets like these).

Don't listen to the "experts."

Their brackets are probably just as messed up as anyone's. Analysts have a pick for the title and will argue it to death, convinced they are right. The ever-charismatic Dick Vitale of ESPN, for example, will pick Duke as his title team every year come hell or high water. Consider this a warning to stay away from Duke as your title team, no matter how many times "Dukie" Vitale says, "They're awesome, baby!"

Location matters.

High seeds will almost always be rewarded with venues close to home for the first two weekends of games. North Carolina will receive a de facto home-court advantage, playing their first weekend in Raleigh and second round in Charlotte, allowing them to sleep in their own beds and travel by bus to the first four rounds. Never overlook the power of the home crowd. Syracuse used great location to get them to the Final Four in 2003, playing the first weekend in Boston and the second weekend in Albany. Look for other teams playing close to home and give the home crowd consideration when choosing your games.

Don't bank on Memphis (or any other perennial underachievers).

Memphis enters the Tournament with only one loss, a thriller against Tennessee in which they came up four points short. With wins against Gonzaga, Georgetown, Connecticut, Arizona, and Oklahoma, the Tigers had the strongest regular season showing despite their weak conference.

But, beware of the Tigers. Memphis is the epitome of the perennial underachieving tournament team. Part of it may be due to their weak conference schedule. By the time they open play in the Tournament, it will be nearly two months since Memphis has won against a quality opponent (no offense to Houston and UAB).

Memphis is also carrying the burden of entering the tournament with only one loss. Only twice since 1966 has a team won the Title when entering the tournament with one loss, Texas Western in 1966 (the darlings of "Glory Road") and North Carolina State in 1974. Some teams have come close recently, however. Our very own 2004 Saint Joseph's Hawks came up one shot short of the Final Four, and in 2005, Illinois also came close, losing to North Carolina in the National Championship game.

Duke has also been a recent underachieving team. The Blue Devils last won the NCAA Championship in 2001, but have no titles and one Final Four appearance since then despite garnering a number one seed four times in those six years.

This year, the Blue Devils can be deceiving, however, despite their two seed and 27-5 record. Duke relies on three-point shooting almost to a fault. They take over 24 shots from beyond the arc per game and make only about 38 percent. This type of offense is not one to rely on come tournament time, as the iron can become unkind at any point during a game. This was especially apparent in Duke's recent regular season game with North Carolina, where the Dukies failed to score over the last 5:47 on their way to a close loss. Reliance on the three-point shot was their Achilles Heel (no pun intended) in that game and, if facing a good defense, may become an issue again. Because of this, Duke may be a dangerous choice as a Final Four or Title team.

Defense wins championships.

Yes, it's cliché, but it's actually true. This year's top defensive squads include UCLA, Tennessee, and Wisconsin. The key is not just good individual, defenders who are athletic, but a quality team game.

Wisconsin has been known over the past few years for their great defense, anemic offense, and games with an entertainment level of zero, rivaling most of the Big Ten's football games. Wisconsin may advance a few rounds based solely on their ability to hold teams to scores in the 40s and 50s, but don't expect them to score with some of the good teams later in the tournament.

UCLA also plays great defense, using great help defense, hedging screens and rotating to cover the open shooters. The Bruins' key to their defensive success is their versatility. At any point, any one of their defenders can match up with any one of the opposition's players, no matter how much of a size or athleticism mismatch there may be. Expect UCLA to make a deep run into the second and possibly third weekend. They will combine their defense with the scoring abilities of Darren Collison, Russell Westbrook, Josh Shipp and fabulous freshman Kevin Love.

Tennessee plays an in-your-face, pressure-oriented defense that thrives on forcing turnovers and converting them into easy buckets. Their toughness down the stretch in games is what makes this team's case for a championship so compelling. On the road at Xavier, the Volunteers forced multiple turnovers and played suffocating defense to turn a four-point deficit into a seven point win over the last four minutes back in December. They displayed the same performance against Memphis, on the road again, in defeating their previously undefeated cross-state rival. Tennessee scored the final eight points of the game to win by a slim four-point margin. With their experience and athletic ability, looks for the Vols to make a deep run into the tournament.

Use your head, not your heart.

Following the spirited run of playing (and nearly winning) four games in four days, many of you on campus may think that the Hawks will automatically go far in the tournament. Caution! This is not a good idea. The key to a good bracket is remaining completely emotionally detached from your picks. We'd all love to see the Hawks in the Final Four, but please realize that this scenario is about as likely as newly-hired UCLA football coach Rick Neuheisel not participating in a tournament pool and losing his job (translated: it ain't gonna happen).

Hopefully these rules help as you begin to fill out the brackets and watch the NCAA Tournament unfold. So, when you're sitting in front of your big screen watching Duke and Memphis play in the national title game while glancing over the carnage that is your bracket, don't worry about it. March Madness is madness for a reason; not even the paid professionals for ESPN ever get it right. You are probably better off just choosing based on colors and mascots, but thanks for reading anyway.